- The US and Iran failed to reach an agreement on Saturday after marathon peace talks in Pakistan.
- The two-week ceasefire has yet to restore normal shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Here's how smart people in business are responding to the development.
The US and Iran remained at a standstill after 21 hours of peace talks between the two delegations failed to reach an agreement, Vice President JD Vance announced at a press conference in Islamabad early on Sunday.
"We go back to the United States having not come to an agreement," Vance said. "We've made very clear what our red lines are, what things we're willing to accommodate them on and what things we're not willing to accommodate them on."
Vance said the critical sticking point during negotiations was seeing an "affirmative commitment" from Iran that it would not seek a nuclear weapon or procure materials necessary for a nuclear deterrent.
Esmaei Baqaei, a spokesman for Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said on X that "discussions were held on various dimensions of the main negotiation topics, including the Strait of Hormuz, the nuclear issue, war reparations, lifting of sanctions, and the complete end to the war against Iran and in the region."
On April 7, President Donald Trump announced a two-week conditional ceasefire aimed at halting the escalating fighting in the Middle East and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway for global energy supply, while the parties seek a peace deal.
Days after the ceasefire announcement, traffic in the strait remained tightly controlled and yet to be restored to normal flow, according to a report from Windward, a maritime intelligence firm.
Here's what people in business are saying about the failed negotiations.
Patrick De Haan
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, wrote on X that the lack of a peace deal likely means oil prices will continue to rise as the Strait remains under Iran's control.
"With the US not coming to agreement or terms with Iran, it is likely that the Strait will remain under their control and that oil prices and thus gasoline, diesel and jet fuel prices keep rising due to the likely continued closure of the Strait," he wrote, later adding, "Not looking good for fuel prices globally."
Marko Kolanovic
Marko Kolanovic, former JPMorgan chief market strategist, wrote in an X post: "The peace deal that I identified as unrealistic (i.e. fake when announced) caused Oil to drop ~15%, broad stock to rally ~5%, tech momentum stocks ~25%. Now exposed as such - Oil and stocks should retrace that move (+75mb of Oil was lost in time wasted). Crash is quite possible."
In a reply on X to a post that questioned JD Vance's assertion that the talks failed over Iran's nuclear ambitions, Kolanovic said: "Exactly, hence likely no taco as they are already selling to public why it failed. It's his famous 'nuclear west in supermarket' and how he justifies war to himself. I'm sure Iran would have agreed with favorable hormuz/sanctions outcome."
Kyle Rodda
Kyle Rodda, analyst at Capital.com, told Bloomberg: "The key question for Monday is whether markets interpret this as a temporary breakdown in negotiations or a structural collapse of the ceasefire framework. That distinction will determine whether the risk-off move fades quickly or extends further."
Charu Chanana
Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets, was quoted by Bloomberg as saying: "The talks ending without a deal is a setback. For markets, this means the relief trade is likely to fade. Oil may see fresh gains, risk sentiment takes a hit again, and Hormuz is likely to remain a live choke-point risk even if it is not fully shut."
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