For the fourth consecutive year, the Atlantic hurricane season kicks off without a named storm forming before June 1, and there are no immediate signs of formation.
The Atlantic Basin hurricane season spans 183 days, running from the start of June through Nov. 30.
Historically, the basin’s first named storm tends to form around June 20, with an average season producing around 14 named systems.
However, in years that are expected to be busier than usual, named storms generally need to form before their letter's climatological date to meet seasonal projections.
For example, if double the average activity is expected, meteorologists typically look for the first storm to develop by June 10, followed by the second storm in early July.
This year, seasonal outlooks from both Colorado State University and NOAA are predicting slightly above-average activity in the Atlantic, so to keep up with the expected pace, observers would expect 2025’s first feature to form before the average June 20 date.
The quiet start certainly raises questions about when the first named storm will form.
The absence of early-season activity is not unprecedented and has even been observed during some active years.
In 2024, the Atlantic Basin experienced a lull from mid-July into early August without a single named system, followed by another break from late August into mid-September – periods traditionally known for tropical cyclone formation.
In 2022, a similar lack of development in July and August set modern records for inactivity.
Despite forecasts calling for an extremely active season, no named storms developed for weeks, primarily due to unfavorable atmospheric conditions.
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Meanwhile, the Eastern Pacific basin is already off to a different start in 2025.
The region has already seen its first named storm, Alvin, and within the next couple of weeks may see its second, Barbara.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has already highlighted an area to watch in the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, but again, formation chances exist more in the longer-term than in the short-term.
The NHC said the disturbance is expected to move generally westward to west-northwestward, and environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive to gradual development. A tropical depression could form by the end of the week.
The NHC is giving the system a medium chance of developing over the next seven days.
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Early tropical activity in the Pacific has little correlation with how the Atlantic season will unfold, but it can impact the basin.
When tropical cyclones develop in the Eastern Pacific, conditions in the Gulf and Caribbean tend to be more unfavorable for development.
Future tropical cyclones such as "Barbara" and even "Cosome" might even steal some of the energy needed for development in the western parts of the Atlantic Basin, leaving the Atlantic quiet for now.
Hints of development chances in the western Caribbean have been declining in the past few days as computer forecast models become more bullish on Pacific Ocean development.
No major weather model – other than the Global Forecast System (GFS) – shows a developing cyclone in the Atlantic Basin in the short- or medium-term, with some tropical weather experts calling the GFS projections doubtful at best.
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Since 2000, only three Atlantic seasons have started with their first named storm forming in July.
While July starts may suggest slower years, exceptions do exist.
In 2004, the first named storm did not appear until July 31, yet the season went on to produce 15 named tropical cyclones.
Most of that activity occurred during a five-week span from late summer into early fall, highlighting how quickly conditions can shift.
As the FOX Forecast Center continues to monitor the Atlantic, the focus will remain on what will be the catalyst that will jump-start the season and lead to the formation of Andrea.
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