JPMorgan's former quant chief predicts tech stocks will 'crash' after the blistering post-ceasefire rally

• The tech-heavy Nasdaq led the post-ceasefire stock rally this week.
• JPMorgan's former quant chief, Marko Kolanovic, says the run-up in tech is destined to reverse.
• He thinks the Iran deal is too fragile to instill further confidence in investors.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has led the post-ceasefire surge in US stocks, but JPMorgan's former quant chief thinks the blistering relief rally is poised to reverse.

Invesco's momentum tech ETF climbed to a fresh record high on Thursday as US stocks soared after President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire agreement with Iran. Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan's former quant chief, raised doubts that the gains can be sustained given the fragility of the deal.

"The biggest gain ever on nothing (fake deal, Hormuz closed). So likely the biggest fade too ..." Kolanovic posted on X in response to a chart showing the jump in momentum tech.

Stocks have rallied on the temporary ceasefire despite signs that the deal may not hold, with Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibafsaying the current ceasefire deal has been broken by Israel's continued bombing of Lebanon and Trump saying that Iran "better not be" charging fees to tankers going through the Strait of Hormuz.

US negotiators, led by US Vice President JD Vance, are set for an in-person meeting with their Iranian counterparts on Saturday.

Kolanovic said momentum tech "will crash if (when) talks yield nothing."

After the Iranian parliament leader said that a ceasefire in Lebanon and the release of Iran's blocked assets are required before negotiations begin, Kolanovic said "who, apart from markets, still thinks negotiations are viable with this condition?," nodding to market moves despite the growing fragility of a US-Iran deal.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained nearly 5%, outperforming the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which gained 3.8% and 3.4%, respectively after the ceasefire was announced. The Nasdaq is up from pre-war levels, while the S&P is down less than 1%.

The former JPM quant flaggedmemory chip stocks specifically, which make up a substantial weight in the momentum tech ETF, as a key risk.

Sandisk is up 45% in the past month, which Kolanovic says is a potential shorting opportunity. Western Digital and Seagate Technology also gained over 30% in the same period.

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