- Substack has emerged as a hub of financial market commentary and analysis.
- As more prominent market voices offer their views, retail investors have flocked to the platform.
- Here are some of the most interesting Substack posts about markets from the last week.
Gone are the days when Wall Street Bets was the premier destination for retail traders. In the years since the GameStop saga, other platforms have emerged for the day trader crowd to swap tips and memes.
After migrating to places on the internet like Discord and Stocktwits, traders have found a new hub of market commentary on Substack. With prominent voices like Michael Burry and Ray Dalio launching newsletters, and independent research from firms like Citrini—which spooked markets with its viral, dystopian AI thought experiment last month—Substack has become a quasi Bloomberg terminal for people who can't fork over thousands for a subscription.
But with so many voices flocking to the platform, it can be difficult to cut through to what's the most interesting commentary out there.
So we've rounded up some of the most interesting market takes shared on Substack in the last week.
Rupak Ghose - Bloomberg is dead, long live Bloomberg!
Ghose, a former sell side equity research analyst, evoked a well-known literary adage to illustrate why he doesn't think the rise of AI will impact Bloomberg as a market data and analytics company too much. In his view, the company is protected by institutional trust across Wall Street built over decades.
To illustrate why, he provided an analogy based on the well known scene in "Good Will Hunting" in which the title character publicly dismantles an argument made by a pretentious Harvard student beginning with "Of course that's your contention, you're a first year grad student."
"Of course that's your contention. You're a VC who's never traded markets. You saw an AI demo from a start-up, and now you think Bloomberg's a legacy SaaS vendor," Ghose wrote.
Frank Chaparro- When Markets Never Close, What Happens to Circuit Breakers?
"Fintech Frank" Chaparro is a former crypto journalist turned head of content at market maker GSR. Chaparro recently examined the question of around-the-clock trading, specifically what it has meant for crypto markets, which, unlike stocks, never close for the day. He noted that part of crypto's appeal stems from the fact that trading is 24/7.
However, that fact has also been blamed for the heightened volatility of cryptocurrencies.
This prompted Chaparro to look at a few different platforms that are attempting to address this, such as perpetual contracts trading platform Trade.xyz's Discovery Bounds feature, which acts as a circuit-breaker-like mechanism that limits how far a price can deviate from the underlying asset when the market is closed.
"Rather than halting trading outright, the mechanism allows markets to remain open while restricting how far prices can drift away from external benchmarks during weekends and holidays," he said. "In other words, trading continues — just within a clearly defined band."
Neale Mahoney - Spiking Gasoline Prices May Wipe Out Larger Tax Refunds Touted by Trump
Mahoney, a Stanford University economist, recently joined three of his colleagues from the Stanford Institute for Economic Policymaking (SIEPR) to reveal the results of a recent study, which showed that this year's tax refunds are likely to be erased by surging gas prices in the wake of the Iran war.
Fellow Stanford researchers Ryan Commings, Caleb Brobst, and former White House economic advisor Jared Bernstein concluded that despite the Trump administration's promises of more robust tax returns and savings this year, most families will be paying a different kind of tax at the pump.
"Since the U.S. launched military operations against Iran on February 28, gasoline prices have risen by 81 cents per gallon, from $2.98 to $3.79," the analysis noted. "For the typical family, the higher prices will take a meaningful bite out of their budget, costing them an extra $68 this month."
Raymond James' institutional equity strategist, Tavis McCourt, recently made a similar argument regarding the impact of oil shocks on tax savings in the US.
The post Here are the most interesting market views making the rounds on Substack this week appeared first on Business Insider
