- Morgan Stanley says an easing of Strait of Hormuz gridlock is more likely than a recession.
- Their base-case outcome would see an easing of inflation threats and lower growth.
- Stock sectors set to win in this scenario include consumer discretionary, financials, and industrials.
There's been no shortage of warnings of doomsday recession scenarios surrounding the Strait of Hormuz closure. But as equity strategists at Morgan Stanley see it, the situation is more likely to improve from here than get worse.
In a note to clients on Monday, the bank said that investors are pricing in an "ongoing constraints" scenario, in which Iran remains in control of the Strait, but ships are increasingly able to pass through.
"Bottom line, the market is saying the cumulative probability of the paths to resuming tanker flow in the Strait are much higher than the recession probability, and we agree," Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's chief US equity strategist and chief investment officer, said in the note.
One sign that investors have adopted this outlook is the fact that stocks aren't down as much as they could have been in a worst-case scenario, the bank said. It attributes that to two reasons: (1) earnings growth is still strong, and (2) the recent year-over-year move in oil prices has been tame relative to other oil shocks throughout history.
With the bank seeing the path of least resistance being a resumption of tanker flows through the Strait — rather than a full-blown recession — it outlined how to capitalize on such an outcome. The firm said to look at stocks in the consumer discretionary, financials, and short-cycle industrials sectors.
The bank also advocated exposure to quality stocks, as near-term volatility may persist. It shared a screen of quality stocks that its analysts have rated "Overweight."
Below, we've listed the 11 stocks on the list that fall under the consumer discretionary, financials, and short-cycle industrials sectors.
The post Morgan Stanley says buy these 11 stocks to position for a Strait of Hormuz reopening and lower oil prices appeared first on Business Insider
