- SpaceX heads toward two big events next week: its first earnings report and a major lockup expiration for the stock.
- Morgan Stanley expects SpaceX to miss consensus revenue and earnings estimates.
- The bank also warned the stock could come under new pressure following the results.
SpaceX is headed for its first big test as a public company: quarterly earnings.
That's not all, however. The first-ever earnings report will be quickly followed by the expiration of a lockup period that could flood the market with market stock.
Shares of Elon Musk's rocket company could see a jolt of volatility next week on the occasion of the two big milestones.
SpaceX isn't expected to turn a surprise profit The company lost $4.9 billion in 2025, and many of its grandest ambitions are still a distant point on the horizon.
Meanwhile, the lock up period will expire on August 6, and allow the first wave of insider stock sales. It's an event some analysts have warned could act as a headwind for the stock, if early investors rush to sell.
Around 930 million shares of SpaceX stock will become available to trade at the end of next week, a volume worth around $100 billion at the current price.
The result could be a big jolt and some potential downside, analysts at Morgan Stanley wrote on Wednesday.
Options-implied volatility for SpaceX the week ending August 7 clocked in at 148.7% on Wednesday, well-above the historic average of 74.9% for the stock, according to data from the analytics platform Barchart.
The bank's analysts said they expect the company to miss slightly on earnings and post a slightly larger-than-expected loss for the quarter. They added that they don't expect SpaceX's results to "significantly change" the near-term or long-term trajectory of the stock, but warned that shares would likely be "at the mercy" of technical factors, like how cautious investors are feeling heading out of the print.
| Q2 figures | Consensus estimate | Morgan Stanley's estimate |
| Revenue | $6.9B | $6.75B |
| Earnings before interest and taxes | -$1.6B | -$1.7B |
The bank pointed to the concept of Max Q, or maximum dynamic pressure, which represents the point of a rocket's launch when pressure on the aircraft reaches a peak.
"We believe Max Q is analogous to what SpaceX shares are experiencing heading into its first reported quarter as a company. The dynamic stress on the stock price from an unprecedented amount unlocked shares following 2Q results," a team led by Adam Jonas wrote.
SpaceX shares have mostly struggled since the company made its debut in early June. The stock soared to $225 a share before plummeting below its initial IPO price. It traded around $111 on Wednesday, down 18% from the offering price of $135.
Morgan Stanley analysts also laid out their list of talking points that they're looking for heading into SpaceX's earnings call. Here's some of what's on their radar:
- Significant talk about AI. "We expect AI to get the most air time of the three businesses," the bank said.
- Cursor deal. Investors shouldn't expect "explicit financial color" on SpaceX's pending deal with Cursor.
- Starlink updates. They also shouldn't expect explicit guidance related to Starlink's broadband adoption and recent deals.
- Starship updates. Management is likely to reiterate their expectation to launch operational payloads on Starship before year-end.
- Compute projects. "Expect a walk through of terrestrial compute scale out through at least the rest of the year in Memphis, and general pathway beyond 2GW next year," analysts added.
The most likely downside surprises for investors on the earnings call include higher-than-expected capex projections, plans to end or renegotiate neocloud deals, or slowing Starlink subscriber figures, the bank speculated.
Still, Morgan Stanley remained bullish on its long-term outlook for SpaceX, reiterating its "overweight" rating and $300 price target for the stock, implying 170% upside from its current levels.
The stock's current share price is likely significantly discounting its "implied AI value," analysts said.
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