PHOENIX - After a slow start to the monsoon season, flooding rain is expected to move into the Southwest this week as waves of showers and thunderstorms push through the central Plains.
The FOX Forecast Center said that as a ridge of high pressure shifted toward the Great Basin and Four Corners region over the weekend, a surge of monsoonal moisture is now pushing westward into more interior portions of the Colorado River basin.
And as moisture levels and temperatures rise, convection will develop daily during the afternoon hours this week.
Because of that, the FOX Forecast Center said thunderstorms may become more widespread across the Southwest due to increased moisture in the atmosphere.
And while flooding is a concern, the rainfall will be beneficial for many cities across the region.
So far, monsoon season has been more of a "non-soon" with little to no rainfall in many locations in the Southwest.
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The FOX Forecast Center said that more than 25 cities across the Southwest are currently experiencing one of their top-five driest years on record, with much of the region in severe to exceptional drought.
It goes without saying that the region desperately needs precipitation.
In Arizona, for example, 100 percent of the state is experiencing some level of drought, with widespread areas in the Extreme or Exceptional categories.
Phoenix is nearly 3 inches below its average rainfall for the year, while Flagstaff is running more than 4 inches below average.
With showers and thunderstorms that develop in the Southwest, rainfall rates may approach 1 to 1.5 inches per hour, leading to localized flash flooding.
Flood-prone areas, especially in canyons and burn scar areas, should remain alert to the flood threat this week.
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Farther to the north and east, in the central Plains and Rockies, higher rain totals are likely, with widespread rainfall totals of 3-5 inches expected.
Some areas may even exceed five inches.
The FOX Forecast Center said that the region has already experienced a deluge of rain this year and is currently running above-average in terms of rainfall totals.
So, with the ground already saturated, training thunderstorms should significantly heighten the flash flood risk.
Because of the threat, NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed the region in a level 2 out of 4 flash flood risk for various parts of the Plains and Rockies this week.
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