Pilots and airlines are using AI tools to better time the seatbelt sign

• Severe turbulence is hard to predict, making it difficult for pilots to time the seatbelt sign.
• AI-driven tools like SkyPath are helping pilots better predict rough air ahead.
• Recent turbulence that injured passengers has highlighted the need for better detection.

You're thrown in your seat as the airplane hits turbulence, wondering why the seatbelt sign isn't illuminated — or why the captain waited until after a sudden jolt to switch it on.

It may seem like the pilot is late. But the decision is quite complicated.

US airline pilot Captain Will Ware, with more than 40 years of aviation experience, says deciding when to turn on the seatbelt sign is a judgment call that balances safety, passenger comfort, and the practical realities of flying hundreds of people in a giant metal tube.

Flipping it on too early can disrupt cabin service, but waiting too long could put flight attendants and passengers at risk. "We don't want to just leave the seatbelt sign on for the entire flight; that's not providing much hospitality," Ware told Business Insider.

The challenge is that turbulence — some so severe it has sent unbelted passengers and crew members into the cabin ceiling — remains notoriously difficult to predict.

Some airlines are experimenting with AI and real-time data tools that can analyze more information faster. Ware — who is helping develop and integrate one of those newer tools, SkyPath, which is in use by several airlines — said it will never replace human judgment but has changed his confidence in turbulence forecasting.

Rough air can form from a range of factors, including shifting weather patterns and clear-air turbulence that develops with little warning. Pilots rely on forecasts, reports from other aircraft, air traffic control updates, and their own experience to predict what's coming. Though those sources can be incomplete, subjective, or slow to share.

SkyPath's AI-driven platform uses weather data collected from iPads on aircraft already flying through the atmosphere and combines it with other information to give pilots a more detailed picture of turbulence conditions ahead.

SkyPath, which is used by many major carriers including United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and Japan Airlines, said its AI model cleans the data and predicts future turbulence up to 24 hours ahead with 90% accuracy.

"My iPad gives me a little message that says, 'You might have moderate turbulence in 13 minutes,'" Ware said. "So I can call the flight attendants and say, 'Hey, I want you to be sitting down in 10 minutes.' Then I can turn on the sign, and hopefully, before you hit it, everyone is safely seated."

He compared the platform to Google Maps, where individual vehicles contribute data that creates a broader view of road and traffic conditions.

Ware said the technology is not only used to warn pilots about turbulence ahead — it can also help confirm when conditions are smooth. That gives pilots more confidence to turn off the seatbelt sign.

"There's never going to be a perfect tool that tells us exactly when turbulence is going to happen," Ware said. "I think passengers think we have a radar for turbulence, but we're really taking all of these inputs and making the best decisions we can."

SkyPath is among a handful of emerging AI and data-sharing turbulence detection technologies.

Japanese carrier All Nippon Airways has integrated an AI-based turbulence prediction tool that it said uses historical and atmospheric data to help forecast rough air with 86% accuracy.

The International Air Transport Association, or IATA, partners with nearly 30 global airlines to collect and share turbulence data through its "Turbulence Aware" tool and is exploring ways to integrate AI.

Pilots get better at avoiding turbulence

Early data suggests these new tools are helping pilots make better-informed decisions.

A 2025 study by Japan Airlines found that the tool "decreases workload and increases safety." Though it added that broader data sharing among airlines in Southeast Asia would improve regional coverage.

SkyPath CEO Maya Shpak told Business Insider that a separate study by SkyPath looking at data from several airlines using its services across two years found a "roughly 50% reduction in encounters with moderate-or-greater turbulence" — even though the total turbulence reported in that period actually increased.

Shpak also said that, in a review of 180 real-world turbulence incidents, SkyPath found that relevant turbulence data was available before the event in 79% of cases. That meant pilots had an opportunity to take action — whether by turning on the seatbelt sign, changing altitude, or rerouting — in most of those situations.

Several high-profile incidents have highlighted the risks of unexpected rough air.

In 2024, a Singapore Airlines flight encountered severe unexpected turbulence that sent unbelted passengers and crew members into the ceiling. Dozens of people were injured, and one passenger died. The seatbelt sign was turned on only moments before.

A year earlier, seven people were hospitalized after a Lufthansa flight experienced a sudden jolt during meal service. The seatbelt sign wasn't on.

Some researchers have linked increases in certain types of turbulence, particularly clear-air turbulence, to atmospheric changes driven by rising global temperatures.

Why you shouldn't fear turbulence

Turbulence has never brought down a modern commercial airliner, yet it remains one of the biggest sources of passenger fear.

A recent study by Phobia Aero, a platform that helps people overcome their fear of flying, found that 25% to 30% of adults experience some level of distress when flying. Among those respondents, 67% said turbulence was the trigger.

Ware said the fear makes sense — part of it is control — but described the experience for pilots as "just a bumpy road."

Think of flying like this: if you put a piece of balled-up paper (the plane) in a cup of Jell-O (the air) and shake it up, the ball may bump around, but it won't fall.

It's similar to how flying works. Modern aircraft like the Boeing 787 have long wings that bend and flex to help handle the forces created by turbulence.

SkyPath hopes to reduce some of the anxiety triggered by rough air.

"It's not only that the crew can now schedule and stop cabin service or set the seatbelt sign earlier, but it's also that simply hearing what is coming, from the most trusted voice on the aircraft, gives an anxious passenger the same sense of control the research describes," Shpak said.

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