THE TAKEAWAY
A new tropical system has been designated a tropical depression and is forecast to intensify quickly — possibly into a strong hurricane — in the Pacific.
The FOX Forecast Center said Tropical Depression Seventeen-E formed near Mexico, where the environment is conducive to tropical activity.
The storm will drift northward toward the Mexican coastline, and computer forecast models indicate the tropical depression could intensify into a strong hurricane.
Tropical Depression Seventeen-E could bring destructive hurricane-force winds, coastal storm surge and torrential rain capable of triggering catastrophic mudslides to the southwestern and west-central coasts of Mexico.
Tropical Storm Odalys has also formed in the East Pacific, and is moving northwest at 9 mph and 45 mph winds, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The storm is not expected to impact land, but Odalys is just the latest in a series of tropical systems impacting the Pacific basin amid a brewing Super El Niño this hurricane season.
The opposite can be said for the Atlantic basin, which is off to its quietest start on record, dating back to the beginning of the satellite era (1960).
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Tropical Depression Seventeen-E will funnel tropical moisture into the Southwest, fueling a dangerous flood threat as the region braces for another round of heavy rain after weeks of relentless storms.
The tropical depression is forecast to become the eastern Pacific’s next hurricane, potentially threatening Mexico’s western coast, while its moisture surges northward ahead of a dip in the jet stream, renewing the flood threat across the Southwest.
To close out the weekend, typical monsoonal thunderstorms will develop as afternoon heating peaks across the Southwest.
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By Tuesday, the pattern will shift as a surge of tropical moisture associated with Invest 99E increases the flood threat once again.
A Level 2 out of 4 flash flood risk is already in place for Tuesday, including Roswell and hard-hit Ruidoso, where rainfall rates could reach 1 to 2 inches per hour.
According to the FOX Forecast Center, long-range forecasts show the potential for a strong hurricane to develop as it inches closer to Mexico next week.
Headed into the middle part of next week, more moisture is expected to continue to surge north into the Southwest, mainly New Mexico.
Depending on how Seventeen-E's movement north unfolds, the flood threat could continue into Wednesday and Thursday.
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Right now, a Level 2 out of 4 flash flood exists on Wednesday with the potential of more flooding to occur in eastern New Mexico.
Current rainfall forecasts show the potential for 3 to 5 inches of rain through next week across central and eastern New Mexico and far western Texas.
Totals could exceed 6 inches if trends continue toward a more northerly track as the FOX Forecast Center continues to monitor any changes in the flash flood risk in the coming days.
The post Tropical Storm Odalys churns in the Pacific as Tropical Depression Seventeen-E fuels Southwest flood threat appeared first on Fox Weather
