- Goldman Sachs says three main factors will drive Nvidia's stock performance through year-end.
- One major focus for the firm is upcoming third-quarter hyperscaler spending figures.
- Updates from China will also be crucial for determine stock returns.
There are a few things that will determine the future for Nvidia stock — and none of them have to do with its coming earnings report, according to Goldman Sachs.
Analysts at the investment bank identified three other main factors they will drive Nvidia's stock performance through the end of the year.
It's already been a wild year for Nvidia, which has experienced a rollercoaster of uncertainty amid wide-reaching tariff proposals and overseas competition.
Shares fell 30% over the first few months of the year, reaching a 2025 low in April. It has since rebounded 92%, and now sits 35% higher for the year.
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Goldman analysts have a mixed outlook for Nvidia over the short term, despite remaining bullish for the chipmaker's growth in 2026.
"Based on our analysis of historical trading patterns, we believe it may be difficult for the stock to outperform in the next few months given a potential lack of hard data to catalyze upward estimate revisions," Goldman analysts wrote. "In the near term, we see three main factors that are likely to drive the stock between now and formal 2026 CapEx guidance from hyperscalers in January."
Detailed below are each the drivers Goldman Sachs is watching:
(1) AI spending guidance
Nvidia will be swayed if hyperscalers — mega-cap tech firms that are shelling out big on AI — release more guidance on their capex plans in the third quarter.
The stock has rallied higher as hyperscalers revised their capex guidance upward this year, Goldman noted.
Major hyperscalers in the US are on track to spend around $398 billion in capex this year, according to consensus estimates cited in a recent note by William Blair. That's expected to grow into $503 billion by 2028 as firms continue to ramp up AI spending, the firm estimated.
(2) Commentary around Rubin
Attention will be on any guidance shed about Nvidia's next-gen AI chip, Rubin. That chip includes a new CPU called Vera, which could make it more powerful than Nvidia's existing Blackwell product line.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, who first announced the new chip at the company's annual GTC conference, said at the event that Vera Rubin chip was expected to ship sometime in 2026.
Speaking to reporters in Taiwan last week, Huang added that Nvidia was currently testing out six new chips, including a new GPU that will tie into the company's Rubin supercomputers.
(3) Clarity on its business in China
Uncertainty surrounding Nvidia's chip sales in China have contributed to much of the volatility in its stock this year. Shares plummeted after Nvidia was banned from selling its H20 chip in China, but the company said in a blog post last month it would resume H20 deliveries to the nation after the US government said it would approve those shipments.
Nvidia's sales in China account for a huge portion of its business. Huang has said the nation holds around $50 billion in yearly revenue opportunity. The firm also took a $4.5 billion writedown on its balance sheet for the first quarter to account for the H20 ban and said it expected an $8 billion revenue loss the following quarter if the ban were to stay in place.
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