The midterms have historically been bad for the party of an incumbent president, but if a series of races since he took office have been anything to go by since Donald Trump returned to office, things could turn particularly ugly for the president come November.
It’s not just that the president has been facing record-low approval ratings in his second term; Democrats have been on a winning streak in special elections at the state level since Trump returned to power.
Democrats have now flipped 30 state legislative seats in elections from red to blue since January 2025. Republicans have not flipped a single one.
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