4 forecasters explain why gold's record-shattering rally has further to run — including one call for a 20% surge

• Gold prices hit $4,000 for the first time ever this week.
• The precious metal has been on a tear due to factors like economic uncertainty and central bank buying.
• Some forecasters think bullion could climb another 20% in the next year.

The rally in gold looks like it can't be stopped.

The record-breaking surge in the precious metal is still going strong, with the price of bullion rising past $4,000 an ounce for the first time on Tuesday. That brings gold's year-to-date gain to 52%, putting it on track for its best year since 1979, when runaway inflation sparked a flight to haven assets.

Questions are building over how long gold's rally can last. A handful of catalysts have continued to push bullion higher this year, including economic uncertainty, concerns about inflation, and a weaker US dollar, but some analysts have said this week that they see the rally as potentially overdone.

Here's what four forecasters have to say — and how much higher they think gold has to climb.

Goldman Sachs: 22% surge through the end of next year

Goldman strategists recently lifted their price target for bullion to $4,900 per ounce by December 2026. That implies gold rising by 20% through the end of next year, thanks to factors like strong central bank buying, robust gold ETF inflows, and "speculative positioning" among gold traders starting to normalize.

The bank said it expects central bank gold purchases to average around 80 metric tons in 2025 and 70 metric tons in 2026. That's because many emerging market central banks are trying to diversify their reserves into gold, it wrote.

Western inflows to gold ETFs, meanwhile, are expected to remain strong as the Fed cuts interest rates.

"Inflows driving the 17% rally since August 26th — Western ETF inflows and likely central bank buying — are sticky in our pricing framework," strategists wrote in a recent note to clients.

HSBC: Gold could rally another 8% in 2026

Gold prices could trade from $3,600 to $4,400 next year, James Steel, the chief precious metals analyst at HSBC, wrote in a note to clients last week. That implies gold rising as much as 8% from its current levels, if it hits the upper end of the bank's trading range.

Steel said he believes gold could remain above $4,000 an ounce in the near-term, thanks to factors like geopolitical uncertainty and worries about the Fed's independence and the US fiscal outlook.

"It is possible, however, that as we move through 2026, the rally may flag. If so, greater supply and reduced physical demand may weigh more notably on prices next year," Steel wrote, later pointing to potential downward pressure from a firming US dollar and political shifts in the US and other countries.

"We anticipate that prices may continue to spike higher near term and into 1H26 but expect some price moderation in 2H26," he added.

The bank thinks the average price of gold will ease slightly to $3,950 in 2026, before cooling to around $3,600 in 2027.

Bank of America: Rally could stall around $4,000, but a jump to $5,000 is also in the cards

The rally in gold is flashing a few technical signals that momentum could be waning, according to Paul Ciana, a technical strategist at BofA.

In a note to clients, Ciana pointed to signs like the precious metal being up for 7 weeks in a row, and gold trading around 21% above its 200-day simple moving average.

Historical patterns suggest that gold could face resistance at around $4,000 or that it could potentially rally up to $5,000 before facing challenges, Ciana said. He compared the current run-up in gold prices to the rally from 2015 to 2020, when bullion soared 85% before seeing a correction.

"This warrants caution into round number resistance at $4,000, or again later at $5,000," he said.

Ed Yardeni: 146% surge through the end of the decade

The Yardeni Research President said he saw gold climbing to $5,000 by the end of 2026 and potentially hitting $10,000 by the end of the decade. That implies a 23% surge in the precious metal in the next year, and a 146% rally over the next five years.

Yardeni said he was bullish due to economic uncertainty, ongoing momentum, and his expectation that central banks will continue to buy gold aggressively.

"Our bullishness is supported by the 'Gold Put,' provided by central banks that are increasing the percentage of their international reserves in gold," the market veteran wrote on Monday, quoting from a previous client note he authored in September.

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