JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Fourth of July celebrations and beach plans in Florida and along the Southeast face interruptions as a weakening frontal boundary and the possibility of tropical development are expected to impact coastal regions for the foreseeable future.
The FOX Forecast Center said most of the precipitation across the Sunshine State so far has been tied to daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms, intensified by an upper-level low that has enhanced activity.
Over the next few days, a cold front will drop in and stall over the region and the warm waters of the southwestern Atlantic – a setup that could eventually lead to tropical development.
The National Hurricane Center has highlighted a region off the coast of the Carolinas, Georgia and Florida for a medium chance of tropical development over at least the next week.
NOAA's Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into the area of disturbed weather off the Southeast coast Friday afternoon to further investigate the atmospheric conditions over the region.
While there remains great uncertainty about the potential tropical formation, FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said the main concern isn’t whether the system becomes a named storm – it’s the risk of persistent beach erosion and locally heavy rain.
"We’re watching a front sagging southward across Georgia and the Carolinas," Norcross said. "If that low-pressure system sits over the warm water long enough, it might try to spin up, but even if it doesn’t, we’re still expecting a soggy weekend."
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Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-4 inches have already impacted the region in recent days, with an additional 1-5 inches of precipitation expected through the remainder of the holiday week, with locally higher amounts.
In addition to the heavy rainfall, waterspouts have been reported, and storms have produced damaging wind gusts – threats that will persist throughout the duration of the event.
Rip currents and beach erosion have not been major issues so far, but as more motion occurs in the ocean, those threats will increase as an area of low pressure gradually forms off the Georgia coast.
Norcross emphasized that whether or not the system becomes a tropical depression or a tropical storm, the overall weather impacts will remain the same.
"If we did get a depression, you probably wouldn’t notice a major change," Norcross stated. "We already have very heavy thunderstorms occurring. The biggest risk is localized flooding if those storms stall over any one area."
Forecasters expect the unsettled weather across the region to linger at least through the upcoming workweek and into the second weekend of July.
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If the low-pressure system ends up getting named, it will be identified as Chantal – the third named storm of the season.
Depending on how tropical activity is measured, the Atlantic Basin is either busier than average or lagging behind in terms of overall storm intensity.
How can both be true?
Despite two tropical storms already forming, their impacts have been minimal, their lifespans short, and their contribution to seasonal energy has been nearly nonexistent.
Meteorologists use a metric called Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE, to quantify the strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes.
So far this season, the ACE tally is well below average – a sign that while storm counts may be above average, their staying power and strength have been lacking.
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