THE TAKEAWAY:
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring a new area to watch for tropical development in the open Atlantic that is now being given medium odds of development, amid a record-slow start to hurricane season.
This area to watch was designated Invest 99L on Friday morning several hundred miles southwest of the Azores.
The NHC said at 2 p.m. ET Friday that Invest 99L had a 70% chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours.
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"In addition, it appears that a well-defined center is developing," the NHC said in a special tropical forecast update Friday morning.
"If these current trends continue, a tropical depression could form as soon as later this afternoon," the NHC added.
This comes as Invest 98L, an area of storms several hundred miles east of Bermuda, no longer has any chance of becoming tropical after strong winds disrupted thunderstorm formation.
Hostile El Niño-driven winds have suppressed the Atlantic hurricane season, which is off to its quietest start on record, dating to the beginning of the satellite era (1966), with just 5 named storms and no hurricanes thus far.
AI and traditional forecast models were completely split on the future of former Invest 98L as late as Thursday. While AI models predicted a strong storm, traditional models showed virtually no development at all.
AI models have generally been quite accurate in predicting tropical activity since they were introduced last year. However, as FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross notes, forecasts for systems that are disorganized or just developing are subject to large errors.
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Unlike the typical tropical disturbances that emerge off the coast of Africa this time of year, Invest 99L is located in the subtropical Atlantic, well north of the current belt of hostile El Niño-driven winds.
The subtropical Atlantic lies outside the Main Development Region, or MDR — the primary hurricane belt.
Meanwhile, long-range forecasts are showing a Central American Gyre (CAG) beginning to set up sometime next week.
The CAG is a sprawling area of low pressure near or over Central America that can produce locally heavy rain, rough surf, and mudslides, and can generate tropical systems in both the Gulf and Eastern Pacific.
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It is closely monitored because it can aid in tropical cyclone development and is most prevalent during late spring and early fall.
In fact, Idalia (2023) formed because of the Central American Gyre, according to the FOX Forecast Center.
Additionally, the new Climate Prediction Centers 2-week tropical outlook shows the lower end potential for some development off the Southeast Coast and in the eastern portion of the Main Development Region.
Typically, El Niño suppresses Atlantic activity by increasing wind shear while having the opposite effect in the Pacific, where warmer ocean temperatures fuel increased activity.
That pattern has already played out across both oceans this year.
Adding to that, forecasts indicate this could be a "super El Niño," potentially making it one of the strongest events on record.
The lack of storm activity has already rewritten history: The Atlantic has now broken the satellite-era record for the latest date without a single hurricane forming in a season.
To put this historic slump into perspective, an average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. So far, there have been just five named storms, zero hurricanes and zero major hurricanes.
The next named storm in the Atlantic would be Fay.
The post Invest 99L rapidly organizing in Atlantic, could become a tropical depression amid strengthening El Niño appeared first on Fox Weather
