Can earnings season be the data lifeline economists have been looking for amid the government shutdown?

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Welcome back! Sora has at least one big fan: Mark Cuban. He gave users on the app permission to use his likeness. He spoke to BI about why he did it, and why it's good for business.

In today's big story, earnings season is upon us, with big banks up first. But can earnings reports fill the gap left from the lack of data due to the government shutdown?

What's on deck

Markets: Our rising stars share advice for how to get your foot in the door on Wall Street.

Tech: Everyone in AI seems to be teaming up. Is that a bad thing?

Business: Running is the newest consumerism cult.

But first, dialing in.

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The big story

A data lifeline

As the economic data drought continues, could earnings season be an oasis or a mirage?

The government shutdown has put a pause on key data reports that economists rely on to gauge where we stand and where things are headed. But the arrival of earnings season means a slew of data, albeit specific to individual companies, is coming down the pipeline.

The first crop of companies up are big US banks, which hold a unique perspective on the spending and borrowing habits of the millions of Americans they serve.

BI's Kaja Whitehouse broke down the three key indicators to watch as banks start reporting. (To recap: JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup check in on Tuesday. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley come on Wednesday.)

The health of borrowers (both consumers and businesses) is one key area to watch. Any sign of deterioration among that group could be a clue that there's trouble ahead.

On the other hand, a customer's willingness to take out additional loans also tells us something about their financial health. After all, you're not likely to borrow more if you're not confident about money continuing to roll in. (At least, I pray that's the case.)

Still, earnings won't show the whole picture.

Like an off-brand product compared to the real thing, earnings data isn't quite as good as the government's reports. Economic experts told BI's Madison Hoff it can't fully replace what the government can offer.

One big issue is that it's tough to understand what is representative of the bigger picture versus what's specific to that company. For example, a major retailer could report blockbuster numbers, which would seemingly indicate consumer strength. But maybe it's just because that particular company ran a really successful campaign.

Still, there's one area where big banks have the edge on the government. And it's key to the future of both the market and the wider economy: artificial intelligence.

As questions continue to rise about the viability of AI business model in the face of some eye-popping spending, banks have played a key role in financing some of those deals.

Granted, these financial firms are unlikely to bash the customers they helped secure massive amounts of money. (After all, it's in their best interest that those loans are paid in full.)

But the way they speak about additional opportunities in that space could offer some insight into AI companies' future prospects.

3 things in markets

1. KKR takes corporate wellness to another level. The private-equity firm opened its new 3,500-square-foot wellness center at its Manhattan headquarters. The facility is complete with chiropractic care, cancer screenings, and more. BI got to tour the space, which felt more like a high-end doctor's office than a corporate nurse's station. Take a look.

2. "A very lonely sport." A big secret to being a day trader is that it's inherently isolating, traders told BI. It's also a niche activity, and finding other traders to talk to can be tough. Many said they see the loneliness as a part of the gig, though.

3. Advice from the pros on landing a finance job. The path to Wall Street has always been tough, but it's been especially brutal these days. BI's Rising Stars of Wall Street — all at the top of their game at age 35 and younger — shared what they'd tell students aspiring to follow in their footsteps. (Plus, they gave tips on how to stand out).

3 things in tech

1. Are Big Tech companies getting too cozy with each other? Rival companies are teaming up to get ahead in the AI race, creating knotty dependencies between them. So what happens when any one of these hundred-billion-dollar players slips?

2. College students finally love their delivery robots. Not so long ago, food-delivery robots were regularly kicked over or vandalized by college students. Now, the tech has gotten better, and more campuses have embraced it. It might be a sign of the robot-delivered future to come nationwide.

3. Startup founders have their eyes locked on Sam Altman. In the past few weeks alone, the OpenAI CEO has been going full throttle with announcements, from a blockbuster deal with AMD to launching the AI video app Sora. Even by startup standards, other tech leaders told BI, Altman's activity stands out: Some are in awe, others are uneasy.

3 things in business

1. The rise of the running industrial complex. All you really need is a shirt, shorts, and a pair of shoes. But maybe you could also use smart sunglasses, amino-optimized gels, or any of the other gimmicky tools that claim to improve runners' performance? Running is bigger than ever, and it's opened a massive marketplace for products that feed on runners' insecurities.

2. Destroy this package. New rules on imports have left some packages in purgatory, either held up at UPS facilities for weeks or headed for disposal. Some UPS customers have had to pay additional fees to free their shipments.

3. Giving up the American Dream. Their families came to the US for various reasons. Decades later, some of their children are choosing to go in the other direction. First-generation Americans shared their stories with BI about walking away from their parents' dreams — and in many ways, the American Dream.

In other news

• I was laid off by Microsoft and can't find a job. I'm weeks away from giving up my apartment and moving across the country to live with family.
• A VC firm says it fired all its analysts and is using AI to help run deals for its new $75 million fund.
• Don't panic: AI isn't here for your job (yet).
• Gen Z held an anti-social media event. Here's how they heard about it.
• Financially independent real estate investors rely on a 'buy box.' How to use the strategy to build a cash-flowing portfolio.
• Sundays are for Sam's Club, as the chain starts opening earlier than Costco.

What's happening today

• It's Columbus Day and/or Indigenous People's Day.

Dan DeFrancesco, deputy executive editor and anchor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Akin Oyedele, deputy editor, in New York. Grace Lett, editor, in New York. Amanda Yen, associate editor, in New York.

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