The flood threat is increasing for millions across parts of the Southern Plains this weekend. The FOX Forecast Center is tracking a brewing cross-country storm that's expected to bring heavy rain from the Desert Southwest across the Plains and into the Deep South — part of a major shift in the overall weather pattern.
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It’s been an active winter across the eastern half of the country, as repeated storms have produced snow and ice due to the cold air that dominated much of December, January and the first part of February.
But that Arctic air has been replaced by a record warm-up across the Central U.S. and the Northeast is finally thawing — meaning that this weekend's storm will be delivering much-needed rain.
Many places across the Southern Plains and the South are actually experiencing drought conditions, especially Arkansas and portions of Georgia.
According to the FOX Forecast Center, a storm system will move out of Baja California and into the Southwest and Southern Plains starting Friday.
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A widespread 2–3 inches of rain is expected across a corridor from eastern Oklahoma to Georgia through the weekend. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible across the South this weekend.
NOAA's Weather Prediction Center issued a low-level flash flood threat for parts of Oklahoma and North Central Texas Friday.
The threat increases on Saturday, with a Level 2 out of 4 flash flood threat now covering parts of Northeast Texas, eastern Oklahoma and central Arkansas, including Little Rock.
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Up to five inches of rain could fall in these areas through the weekend.
From there, most computer forecast models show that this system remains to the south, moving across the Gulf Coast before sliding offshore near the Southeast coast.
In a scenario that computer forecast models say is unlikely, the massive storm system could lift north into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast after moving off the coast.
Looking into early next week, a large dip in the jet stream is expected to stall over the West. This will promote an area of high pressure over the east, reversing the weather pattern that has dominated much of the past month.
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When this happens, storms will be more likely to form in the West. As they move across the central U.S., they will grow stronger and then push eastward.
But if the area of high pressure becomes too strong, the storms could be pushed towards Canada instead.
On the other hand, if the area of high pressure weakens or moves farther south, it could cause impactful storms to move through the Midwest and into the Northeast.
This not only raises the chances of snow in the North, but can also increase the potential of severe weather in the South.
An area of high pressure in the Southeast will promote warmer air and instability, resulting in stronger thunderstorms.
Check back for updates on this developing story.
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