Last updated at 9:15 a.m. on Oct. 8, 2026
Isaias has rapidly intensified into a hurricane over the southern Gulf in a similar area where Milton spun up two years ago. But the steering flow is very different this time around. Isaias will turn north. In addition, upper-level winds will limit how strong this storm can get, though more strengthening is likely.
LATEST FROM FOX WEATHER HURRICANE SPECIALIST BRYAN NORCROSS
On the current schedule, landfall will occur late on Friday or very early Saturday. The center looks most likely to cross the coast in Alabama or the western Florida Panhandle. The most severe impacts will be to the right (the east) of where the center comes ashore, although damaging impacts can occur just west of the landfall point as well.
Two major environmental factors will be influencing the strength of Isaias. The water temperature in the Gulf is record warm, so there's plenty of energy for rapid strengthening. On the other hand, the upper-level winds will become increasingly hostile tomorrow as the storm moves north toward the Gulf Coast.
Until tomorrow morning, it appears that the energy available from the Gulf water will be the controlling factor. Therefore, Isaias will continue to strengthen. About midday on Friday, the center of the storm will still be offshore, but it will be within striking distance of the Gulf Coast. The upper-level winds are forecast to be strong enough to significantly impact Isaias's circulation Friday afternoon and evening. As a result, some weakening is forecast before landfall.
TIMELINE: WHERE TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS IS HEADED AND WHEN IT COULD BECOME A HURRICANE
How much weakening is an open question, and we're not likely to have an answer until it's happening on Friday. In any case, however, with the weakening will come an expansion of the impacts to the east. The storm will become east-side loaded.
On the current schedule, dangerous conditions will start to spread across the northern Gulf Coast Friday afternoon, peaking late Friday into early Saturday at the coast but spreading north through the weekend.
Isaias will feature all of the hurricane hazards. Strong winds to the right of the center will spread inland. Power outages are likely.
Storm surge near and to the right of the landfall point of the storm's center will push Gulf water over the coast. The National Hurricane Center forecast calls for tides up to 7 feet above normal if the surge peaks at high tide somewhere between Mississippi and east of Panama City. Apalachee Bay in the Big Bend of Florida is also vulnerable, as is southeastern Louisiana.
Tornadoes are possible north and east of the track of the storm as it moves inland.
A strong flow of tropical moisture has been interacting with a stalled front over Florida causing rounds of rain over the central part of the state. Now Isaias will pull more moisture north and together those systems along with an upper-level low will drench the Southeast. Flood warnings are likely well inland.
Plan to stay well informed this weekend.
An important issue will be the status of the big football games this weekend. Consider carefully if it is safe to drive to the stadium if you are planning to attend. The storm's top winds will decrease as it moves inland, but the gustiness will increase. Power outages are likely. There will be the threat of tornadoes north and east of the track of the center. And flooded roads could be a problem Saturday, especially in eastern Mississippi, the southern half of Alabama, the southern half of Georgia, and in the coastal Carolinas.
There is still some disagreement among the computer forecast models on exactly how Isaias is going to play out – i.e. how dominant the hostile upper-level winds from the jet stream are going to be. Since the system is getting better organized, hopefully we'll see more agreement in the various computer forecasts late today. In any case, don't lock into any particular landfall point or scenario. Pay attention to the National Hurricane Center's alerts and information from local authorities.
Tropical Storm Simon has formed and is moving north parallel to the Mexican coast. It's forecast to reach hurricane strength tomorrow and Category 3 strength on Saturday. Friday into Saturday, a deep dip in the jet stream is forecast to deflect Simon toward the coast. Everybody from Manzanillo north, including Puerto Vallarta and Mazatlan, should stay well informed of the latest forecast.
North of there, Hurricane Rachel is about to get deflected back to the coast as well, as it is torn apart by strong upper-level winds. It could still be a significant storm when it crosses Baja California and moves along with its moisture into the Southwest. Significant rainfall is possible in some locations including into the Intermountain West.
A third storm has a medium chance of developing offshore of Southern Mexico.
The post Bryan Norcross: Dangerous impacts from Hurricane Isaias to spread from the northern Gulf across the Southeast appeared first on Fox Weather
