- The private credit sector has been spooking investors.
- Some asset managers have been hit with billions in redemption requests from investors.
- Here's a timeline explaining why markets are anxious about the health of the sector.
The private credit market has been generating some nerve-racking headlines lately.
Questions about the health of the booming sector are growing louder amid a flood of redemption requests among some high-profile private credit funds.
The latest news has added to concerns that were kicked off late last year. While private markets appear steady overall, investors are growing increasingly worried that cracks could be forming at a time when more retail investors are being invited into the market.
Here's a rundown of everything that's happened lately to cause jitters to spike.
Jamie Dimon says he's "not particularly worried"
Bloomberg/Getty Images
Date: April 14
JPMorgan boss Jamie Dimon said he wasn't concerned about systemic risks stemming from the private credit universe.
"You have to have very large losses in private credit before, at least it looks like, banks are going to get hit or something like that. So it doesn't mean you won't feel some stress and strain, and that you might have to do something about it, but I'm not particularly worried about it," Dimon said of the sector, speaking on the bank's first-quarter earnings call.
Dimon was one of the first big names on Wall Street to raise concerns about the health of private credit, suggesting that the bankruptcies of First Brands and TriColor last year were "cockroaches" in the broader credit system. The bank also reportedly restricted its private lending earlier in the year.
Goldman CEO David Solomon says private credit is still "very, very attractive"
Bloomberg/Getty Images
Date: April 13
Goldman Sachs chief David Solomon struck an optimistic tone when speaking about private credit on the bank's first-quarter earnings call.
The CEO said he expected continued "noise" about private credit from retail investors, but that he remained optimistic about the sector's investment potential.
"This continues, with any sort of a medium-term or longer-term view, to be a very, very attractive platform for us," Solomon said, speaking to investors on Monday.
More voices on Wall Street have started to brush off concerns about private credit, often pointing out that most debt in the space is neither distressed nor heavily discounted.
Carlyle limits withdrawals after investors look to exit flagship fund
NYSE
Date: April 9
Carlyle said it would limit redemptions from its flagship private credit fund to just 5% in the first quarter.
In a letter to investors, the firm said its Carlyle Tactical Private Credit Fund received redemption requests totaling 15.7% of its total holdings. The fund has $7 billion in assets, per Carlyle's website.
"Recent market volatility has led to increased repurchase activity across private credit funds," the firm said in the letter.
Ares caps private credit withdrawals at 5%
Momo Takahashi
Date: March 24
Ares said it would limit withdrawals from its private credit fund to just 5% of the fund's value this quarter.
The Ares Strategic Income Fund received withdrawal requests totaling more than 11% of its value in the first quarter, or around $1.2 billion, according to a regulatory filing. The firm is sticking to its 5% quarterly payout cap, which equates to $524 million in payouts.
The withdrawal requests largely came from a "limited number of family offices and smaller institutions" in select regions, which make up a small group among the fund's total shareholders, Ares told investors in a letter.
The firm did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.
Moody's slashes its rating on a private credit fund to 'junk' status
Samuel Boivin/NurPhoto via Getty Images
Date: March 24
Moody's downgraded one private credit fund owned by Future Standard and KKR to "junk" status.
The rating agency slashed its grade on FS KKR Capital Corp from Baa3 to Ba1, citing the fund's "asset quality challenges."
The fund also lost a net $114 million over the fourth quarter, and could see "weaker profitability and greater net asset value erosion over time" compared to similar funds, Moody's said.
"The downgrade reflects FSK's continued asset quality challenges, which have resulted in weaker profitability and greater net asset value erosion over time relative to business development company (BDC) peers," Moody's said.
"FSK remains well positioned despite the decision. It has a strong, well‑laddered liability structure with no 2026 unsecured maturities and limited near‑term maturities, enabling us to continue supporting our portfolio companies and navigate the current market environment," a spokesperson for FSK said.
Apollo says it will fill less than half of investor withdrawal requests
Apollo said it would fill 45% of withdrawal requests from investors in its flagship private credit fund this quarter
PATRICK T. FALLON/AFP via Getty Images
Date: March 23
Apollo said it would fill just 45% of investor withdrawal requests this quarter from its flagship private credit fund.
In a filing on Monday, the asset manager said its Apollo Debt Solutions BDC received withdrawal requests equivalent to 11% of the fund's outstanding value in the first quarter.
The firm will be sticking to its 5% quarterly withdrawal cap, meaning it will return an estimated $730 million to investors, the filing said.
Many private credit funds have a 5% cap on quarterly withdrawals, but some firms, like Blue Owl and Blackstone, have honored redemption requests exceeding the quarterly withdrawal cap.
Marc Rowan, the CEO of Apollo, has joined the chorus of Wall Street voices warning of problems in private credit. Speaking at the Bloomberg Invest conference earlier this month, Rowan flagged the risks of a "shakeout" in alternative investments, pointing to problems among various private credit funds in particular.
JPMorgan reportedly restricts private lending
Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via Getty Images
Date: March 11
JPMorgan is reportedly putting more red tape on private lending.
The bank is putting borrowing restrictions on some private credit funds after it marked down some loans in the firms' portfolios, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg.
The lending restrictions have only impacted a small portion of borrowers at the bank, the people said, adding that the rule-change hasn't resulted in any significant margin calls, or demands for clients to deposit more cash into their accounts, as of Wednesday.
Most of marked-down loans were made out to software firms, sources told the Financial Times and CNBC over Tuesday and Wednesday.
BlackRock limits withdrawals on its private credit fund
Smith Collection/Gado/Getty Images
Date: March 6
What happened: The world's largest asset manager said it was capping withdrawals from its HPS Corporate Lending Fund, a $26 billion private credit fund that received $1.2 billion in redemption requests in the first quarter.
First reported by the Financial Times, the fund said it was paying out $620 million of those requests, or 5% of its net asset value. That meets a threshold after which BlackRock is allowed to restrict further withdrawals, a letter to investors said.
BlackRock shares dropped 5% on Friday amid a broader risk-off move in the market.
BlackRock declined to comment on changes to the fund beyond the letter posted on its website.
Blackstone taps execs for cash
Blackstone logo
Craig T Fruchtman/Getty Images
Date: March 2-3
What happened: The private equity giant was hit with a wave of redemption requests from a private credit fund offered to retail investors.
Bloomberg reported that, in an unusual move, the firm tapped more than 25 top executives to raise $150 million in order to meet the flood of requests.
Speaking to CNBC, Blackstone president Jon Gray said he believed investors may be motivated to withdraw their funds due to the "constant spin cycle" over recent private credit failures.
"When that's happening, it's not a surprise that investors can get nervous, financial advisors can say 'Hey, I want to redeem,'" Gray said on Tuesday.
Blue Owl fails to syndicate a data center loan for CoreWeave
Brendan McDermid/Reuters
Date: February 20
What happened: Business Insider reported thatBlue Owl failed to secure a loan for Coreweave's $4 billion data center.
An executive familiar with large data center financing told Business Insider that Blue Owl faced limited interest in the data center due to hesitation from other lenders and investors who were concerned about exposure to AI firms with weaker credit. Coreweave has a credit rating of B+, according to S&P Global, below investment grade.
The report followed others that have suggested lenders are growing skittish over data center deals being cut in private markets.
Last December, negotiations between Blue Owl and Oracle to build a $10 billion data center stalled, sources told the Financial Times.
In a statement, Oracle told Business Insider that the details in the FT story were "incorrect."
"Our development partner, Related Digital, selected the best equity partner from a competitive group of options, which in this instance was not Blue Owl. Final negotiations for their equity deal are moving forward on schedule and according to plan," Michael Egbert, a spokesperson for the software giant, told Business Insider in December.
Top economist Mohamed El-Erian sees a "canary in the coalmine"
Pier Marco Tacca/Getty Images
Date: February 19
What happened: Famed economist Mohamed El-Erian said he believed Blue Owl's move was a warning for financial markets.
In a LinkedIn post, the chief economic advisor at Allianz said the firm's decision to halt redemptions could be a "canary-in-the-coalmine" moment that could hint at risks to the broader financial system.
He added that he believed the "investing phenomenon" in private markets had gone too far.
"There's also the 'elephant in the room' question regarding much larger system risks (nowhere near the magnitude of those which fueled the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, but a significant — and necessary — valuation hit is looming for specific assets)," El-Erian wrote.
Blue Owl halts withdrawals
Brendan McDermid/Reuters
Date: February 18
What happened: The Financial Times reported that Blue Owl permanently froze redemptions on its Capital Corporation II fund, a private debt fund it had opened to retail investors.
The firm said investors in the fund would no longer be able to cash out their investments on a quarterly basis, but would instead receive periodic payments as Blue Owl sells its assets over time.
Online, the move sparked comparisons to how some debt funds froze withdrawals leading up to the Great Financial Crisis.
Speaking to CNBC after the initial reports, Craig Packer, co-president and the company's head of credit, said he believed media coverage about the fund's changes was misleading.
"We're not halting redemptions, just changing the form, and if anything, we're accelerating redemptions," Packer said.
UBS sees private credit defaults rising to 15% in the worst-case AI scenario
Fabrice COFFRINI / AFP via Getty Images
Date: February 11
What happened: Investors grew more nervous about private lending as UBS speculated that defaults could soar in a severe "AI disruption" scenario.
In a note to clients last month, strategists at the bank said they lifted their forecasts for private credit defaults. In a scenario where AI disrupts the business world at a "rapid and aggressive" pace, the bank said it sees the private credit default rate potentially rising as high 15%.
In its analysis, UBS pointed to how AI disruption fears had sparked a deep sell-off in software stocks, one area of the market with large exposure to private credit. Software accounts for around 40% of all private equity-backed loans outstanding, according to a recent Bloomberg analysis.
"I do think, though, software is a big stick. You know, the credit market has had all these sticks being dropped on it, and one day, it'll really buckle," Victor Khosla, the CIO of Strategic Value Partners, said at the time.
Jamie Dimon warns of credit cockroaches
Fabrice COFFRINI / AFP via Getty Images
Date: October 14
What happened: Jamie Dimon, one of Wall Street's most influential bankers, said he was watching for more signs of trouble in private credit on an earnings call with investors.
"When you see one cockroach, there's probably more," the JPMorgan boss said, adding that his firm would "scour" its underwriting and other procedures after the collapse of First Brands and Tricolor.
"Asset prices are high, a lot of credit stuff that you would see out there, you will only see in a downturn," Dimon added, noting that the US credit space had looked "benign" for years.
Other figures on Wall Street have also warned of more trouble in the sector in recent months.
Apollo CEO Marc Rowan said he saw a potential "shakeout" in private credit when speaking at the Bloomberg Invest Conference on Tuesday.
Lloyd Blankfein, Goldman Sachs' former CEO, also doubled down this week on his view that financial markets could soon face a "reckoning," potentially stemming from private credit.
Tricolor and First Brands buckle
Robbie Jay Barratt - AMA/Getty Images
Date: September 10-24
What happened: Anxiety about the private credit sector picked up after subprime auto lender Tricolor Holdings and auto parts company First Brands declared bankruptcy late last year. Tricolor was the first to go under, filing for bankruptcy on September 10, with First Brands following several weeks later.
In December, federal prosecutors in New York unsealed an indictment that charged Tricolor's founder, Daniel Chu, with bank fraud, wire fraud, and other offenses. In a statement, the US Attorney's Office said Tricolor's executives had attempted to "manipulate the characteristics of collateral to make ineligible, near-worthless assets appear to meet lender requirements."
In January, prosecutors unsealed an indictment revealing similar charges against First Brands' CEO, Patrick James, and his brother, a senior executive at the firm. Prosecutors alleged that the pair "perpetrated a yearslong fraud" that culminated in First Brands' bankruptcy.
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