Argentina at +255 to win the World Cup final is a value bet Lionel Messi backers cannot ignore

Argentina enters the World Cup final as underdogs at +255 despite Lionel Messi's Golden Boot bid and a dominant run of late-game goals scored.

June 11 marked the start of the World Cup. We saw Mexico take down South Africa and South Korea defeat Czechia. Since then, there have been great matches, dull matches, wins, ties, losses, controversies, and some amazing soccer.

After today, there will be no more soccer to enjoy – well, there will, but most of us won’t pay attention. Let’s try to close the World Cup with a win.

There are some games where it just looks like one team is significantly better than its opponent. I can tell you that Spain looked like they were men playing with boys when I watched them play against France. Sure, they had a lead, and their main goal at that point was to play keep away. They did it brilliantly. The stats show that the splits were very close, but if you watched it, Spain always looked like the dominant team.

There isn’t one major star on the Spanish team, but they are finding ways to win as a team, which can often be the more effective method. This win did come with a bit of controversy as the first goal they scored on a penalty was… interesting. A French player was trying to kick a ball in the air, and the Spanish player purposefully ran into his leg, causing a penalty. Some things about soccer are goofy, but if that’s the rule, it was a smart play. I don’t expect them to get the benefit of the doubt against Argentina.

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That is mostly because Argentina seems to be able to do whatever it wants on the field, and the referees don’t seem to care. It was very interesting to see that Lionel Messi stepped on a player’s foot prior to the game-winning assist. That exact same thing happened when an Egyptian player stepped on an Argentinian player’s foot prior to a full field navigation and goal score. The goal was negated for Egypt, but upheld for Argentina.

Regardless of calls, Argentina has found ways to win. When they get their first goal, it feels like the second isn’t that far behind. It's almost like dominoes, where they are just finding the right spot to attack, and then the whole thing goes as soon as they get the first one in place.

Messi remains elite and will win the Golden Boot if he scores a goal because he has more assists than Kylian Mbappe. There is a lot left for them to accomplish, but the World Cup win would be more important than the Golden Boot.

Perhaps the smart thing to do, knowing that Argentina is getting so many calls, or perhaps the benefit of the doubt, if you prefer, is not to bet on FIFA games. That’s not my way, though. I didn’t come this far in this World Cup journey to just give up. I want to keep betting it.

I’m going to take Argentina. I really can’t believe that they are +255 with the best player in history on their side. I get that Spain looked absolutely dominant, but Argentina has been toying with teams and then absolutely destroying them. I definitely could regret this choice, but after they’ve scored nine of 11 goals in the 79th minute or later, I just don’t see quit in Argentina. Give me them to repeat as champions.

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024

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